The model forecast runs from midnight last night are compared above for the WRF-GFS (Atmo high-resolution version) of the WRF model and the midnight run of the NAM model. The WRF forecast (top - total precipitation for period) indicates that the event is over by midnight on Monday night and predicts precipitation only at the higher elevations of southeast Arizona. The midnight run of the NAM model (bottom) is quite similar, although about 6 to 12 hours slower than the WRF, predicting precipitation mainly northward from the Catalinas. Neither model indicates much happening across the Tucson metro area, except for a strong frontal passage Monday afternoon or evening. But of note - the GFS ensemble members' (except for the operational member) forecasts are more agressive, with 11 of 12 forecasts indicating a frontal band of showers moving across southeastern Arizona late Monday into early Tuesday. The ECMWF forecasts a very strong frontal passage across southern Arizona (I don't have access to ECMWF precipitation forecasts). So, even though the event is only a couple days away, the forecast for metro Tucson remains very difficult. I will note that when the GFS ensembles have indicated 90 to 100% of the members' forecasting precipitation, we have almost always had measureable rain here at the house. So, I'm hopeful that we'll have at least a light rainfall here.
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