From the 232 pm EDT Model Diagnostics Discussion produced at HPC:
...CYCLONE LIFTING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD DAY 1...
PREFERENCE: ECMWF - ALL THE SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE TRENDED OFFSHORE WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH A MORE STRUNG OUT SHORTWAVE TRAIN WHICH DELAYS THE RAPID DEEPENING STAGE UNTIL THE LOW PASSES CAPE COD. THE LATEST
ECMWF SEEMS TO HAVE THE SMOOTHEST TRANSFERS OF ENERGY...AND SHOULD
AFFORD THE BEST GUIDANCE. INTERESTINGLY...THIS MORE OFFSHORE
SOLUTION WAS THE PREDOMINATE ONE OUT AT DAY 5...AND AS OFTEN
HAPPENS...THE DAY 3 CONSENSUS WAS THE ODD GROUPING OUT...MOST
LIKELY OWING TO THE SPARSE DATA SAMPLING OF THE CRITICAL ENERGY
OVER THE OPEN PACIFIC AT THAT TIME.
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This came to my attention as I was reading through SUNY Albany MAP posts. This vague and undefined "energy" terminology has been appearing in WR FDs the last couple of years and perhaps forecasters out here have picked it up from HPC? Regardless, what the hell does above "energy" verbiage actually mean?
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Jason Furtado reacted on MAP: What is this "critical energy"? I seem to have missed this chapter in my Holton dynamics textbook.
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