This morning's sounding at Tucson (above) indicates that warm, middle-level air is coming around the bottom of the Pacific cutoff - this is limiting instability and clouds to the lower half of the troposphere. There appears to be even warmer air upstream. Southern Arizona lies to the right side(warm side) of a powerful 140 kt jetstream that is over northern Arizona.
I've just looked at the early run of Atmo's WRF-GFS model, and it forecasts that a band of showers will come across the Tucson area this morning (above is model forecast of composite radar echoes at 9 am). Note that the echoes are not intense, because of the warm air aloft and limited instability.
The above table shows the WRF-GFS forecast for southeastern Arizona locations. The model forecasts today's event to be basically ended wrt precipitation by around noon. Note the very cool temperatures forecast for today and tomorrrow. The model is probably a bit too fast, but its indications of a fast hitting event are probably on track.
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