Wednesday Morning October 19, 2011

Was an interesting walk this morning. It was cool here at the house (low temperature of 48F), but it was distinctly colder right down in the Rillito Wash - I'd estimate about 10F colder. However, as I walked toward the east (upstream), I encountered pockets of both warm and cool air drifting along down the wash.

The 1200 UTC 850 mb chart (above) shows that the central US front did back into southeast Arizona. Winds this morning at the airport and DM AFB have gusted from the east-southeast at 20 to 30 mph. The east winds (which were well-forecast by Atmo's WRF-GFS model, both yesterday and in the early run this morning - forecast valid at 5 am MST shown below) kept the "official" low temperature quite mild - looks like it was probably 64F at airport; 16F warmer than here near the Rillito. The 850 mb plot also shows that the cold front pushed south across the Gulf of Mexico. It is hard to know if strong winds have blown out into the Gulf of Tehuantepec - perhaps satellite loops will give some indications later today?