The global models are predicting quite a change by the end of the week, with a strong 500 mb short wave digging into the western US. The 108-h forecast at 500 mb by the GFS is shown above, valid at 5 pm MST next Friday afternoon (October 4th). The 108-h 500 mb spaghetti plot from the GFS ensemble is shown below, with all members very similar over the western US and north Pacific.
The ECMWF is also similar (forecast below is for 5 am MST Saturday morning), but a bit deeper and further south with the strong vorticity advection. The GFS is quite dry with system at this time, as only a member or two are forecasting precipitation at lower elevations. The ECMWF is perhaps a bit more moist. Regardless, a strong and dusty frontal passage likely Friday afternoon, with much cooler temperatures. Note that the ECMWF drops 500 mb heights over Tucson by more than 300 m from this morning to Saturday morning. So, increasingly interesting weather for the Southwest as the week progresses.
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