Yesterday was very suppressed and dry here in southeast Arizona. Main weather issue was easterly winds of 30 to 40 mph - Mt. Hopkins had a gust to 63 mph yesterday morning. Today looks like an upturn, with at least a chance of showers and storms across much of the southeast part of state.
Above is morning view north of Kitt Peak showing heavy clouds and light showers out there. Below is 1430 UTC visible satellite image showing clouds and showers from south of Tucson to the Colorado River. South to southwest winds in the cloud layer should push them our way.
The morning Tucson sounding (above from SPC) indicates no CAPE, but the data appear a bit too dry - so there should be some CAPE (best at high elevations) later today as the moisture increases and middle-level temperatures at 500 mb remain around -10C. The GPS time series for U of A is shown below, and indciates a very slow increase during past day or so. Yesterday's early forecast by Atmo's version of WRF-GFS was spot-on. Today's early run crashed so no WRF-GFS available at this time. Morning run of the NAL forecasts light showers over southeast arizona this afternoon.
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