Tuesday, November 03, 2015

First November Weather System Approaches

The approaching 500 mb short-wave trough is currently to our west and northwest (above is 06z NAM forecast valid at 5:00 am MST this morning - November 3rd) and will be impacting southern Arizona today and tomorrow. The system is a bit disorganized now with multiple vorticity maxima embedded within it - the southernmost maxima will be affecting our area as the system evolves. There have been thunderstorms associated with the short wave, as indicated by graphic below, which shows detected CG flashes for the 12-hours ending at 11 UTC this morning (from Atmo and Vaisala). 

The initial impacts will be strong and gusty winds, especially for northeastern Arizona which will be most impacted by this event - WRF-NAM forecast from 06 UTC above is for 10-m winds valid at 1:00 pm this afternoon. The WRF-NAM forecast of precipitation through 5:00 pm tomorrow is shown below. Most precipitation is forecast for the Rim Country and White Mountains. Streaky precipitation is forecast for our area. At the bottom is the same forecast, but for snow accumulation, indicating a fairly significant snow event for higher elevations of northeast Arizona. The 06 UTC WRF-GFS forecasts are similar. So we can expect some wind, a strong frontal passage, showers, and depending on your location, perhaps some rain on the ground. May see our first mornings with below freezing temperatures in this part of town later in the week.

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