Wednesday, November 25, 2015

Very Mild Morning - 25 November 2015 - And Etc.

After yesterday's chilly morning low here of 37 F (49 F at TUS), it is a very mild morning today. Current temperature here at 6 am is 52 F and low was only 46 F (airport numbers 62 F and 57 F). Shown above is a 6:00 am MST surface plot from MesoWest (Univ. of Utah) and shown below is the WRF-NAM surface forecast valid at the same time from the 12 UTC forecast run yesterday morning. Appears to have been a pretty good 24-hour hour forecast.

The 06 UTC WRF-NAM forecast from today indicates gusty winds for southeast Arizona and very strong winds up in the northeast third of the state (forecast below is valid at 1:00 pm this afternoon). Tomorrow the forecast indicates that strongest winds shift eastward into Santa Cruz and Cochise Counties and new Mexico.

Hurricane Sandra (above at 5:00 am MST) is forecast by the NHC (below) to become a major hurricane, before turning northeastward and heading into Mexico.

The main precipitation over the weekend (above is 06 UTC WRF-GFS forecast of accumulated precipitation through 5:00 PM next Sunday) is forecast to occur over the mountain ranges of the Inter-mountain West. Hurricane Sandra produces major rains over western Mexico, and the moisture plume from Sandra contributes to a very major rain event over the Southern Plains. Flash Flood watches are already in effect for parts of Oklahoma and Texas for Friday and Saturday.

Best of the Holiday Weekend to all!

No comments:

Post a Comment