Thursday, November 05, 2015

Chilly Sunrise After Early Showers

It was a crisp and chilly sunrise along the Rillito this morning, following early am showers. Another 0.04" here at house, with 25 of the ALERT sites (27%) recording 0.04" or more rainfall - higher elevation sites probably had light snow and are not in this count. Amounts were all less than a tenth of an inch and were in the northern portions of the network.

My max/min thermometer has failed, so I won't know what the low temperatures are until I can replace it - bad, since tomorrow morning will probably be first one this Fall below freezing along the Rillito.

Next weather system to affect our part of state will likely be on Tuesday and Wednesday. The 500 mb 144-hour forecasts (valid at 5:00 pm MST next Tuesday) from 00 UTC last evening are again quite different for parts of the Southwest. The ECMWF (above) forecasts the vorticity maximum with the short wave to be over Southern California, while the GFS (below) forecasts several maxima to be over the Four Corners area. Heights are different over Southern California by more than 100 m. Both forecasts would bring wind and the ECMWF might bring slight chance of showers - these are a long way out, so we'll wait to see what actually evolves.

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