Friday, December 02, 2016

Mixed Signals For Tonight and Tomorrow

Morning forecast for the airport from NWS is above, indicating 30% chance of 0.01" or more at airport tonight.

GEFS QPF plumes above from 06 UTC last night indicate measurable precipitation forecasts at TUS from all members, plus the operational GFS. However, amounts are very light as the system has become even more moisture starved. Plumes for PHX and YUM have all members forecasting zero rainfall. However, the plumes for El Paso, below, are very impressive. 

Finally, the 06 UTC WRF-GFS forecast from Atmo indicates little precipitation for the Tucson metro area (forecast below is for total precipitation through 11:00 pm MST tomorrow night. So models say nothing, or some light showers around, or a general but light rain event - things can be tough even when forecast is for less than 36 hours.

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