Wednesday, December 21, 2016

Long-Term Forecast On December 10th Not Too Bad

Back on December 10th I posted a 15-day forecast from the operational GFS that showed total precipitation through 05:00 pm MST on Christmas Day. The model forecast way back then certainly had the right trend, with the closed low and tropical moisture plume affecting the Southwest. It was a few days slow and didn't reflect the Christmas weekend storm coming down from the Northwest - but not bad for so far out.

Forecast below is from the 06 UTC WRF-GFS last night and is for total precipitation through midday Christmas Eve - quite a pair of events if this forecast verifies. Big question now becomes how low will snow level drop during the night before Christmas?

Edited to add: Relative to the question just above, I added the 06 UTC GEFS plumes for QPF and also for snow accumulation at the airport. Some ensemble members are actually forecasting snow down at low elevations across the metro.

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