Wednesday, December 21, 2016
Long-Term Forecast On December 10th Not Too Bad
Back on December 10th I posted a 15-day forecast from the operational GFS that showed total precipitation through 05:00 pm MST on Christmas Day. The model forecast way back then certainly had the right trend, with the closed low and tropical moisture plume affecting the Southwest. It was a few days slow and didn't reflect the Christmas weekend storm coming down from the Northwest - but not bad for so far out.
Forecast below is from the 06 UTC WRF-GFS last night and is for total precipitation through midday Christmas Eve - quite a pair of events if this forecast verifies. Big question now becomes how low will snow level drop during the night before Christmas?
Edited to add: Relative to the question just above, I added the 06 UTC GEFS plumes for QPF and also for snow accumulation at the airport. Some ensemble members are actually forecasting snow down at low elevations across the metro.
Posted by Bob Maddox at 5:57 AM