Friday, December 16, 2016

Quick Update Re Today and Tonight

There are already some light showers or sprinkles around southeast Arizona this early morning - above composite radar graphic is from 06:15 am MST. The NWS "Weather Story" for today is shown below and highlights the strong winds advisory that is in effect.

The NWS gird point forecast for the airport above indicates wind gusts of 40 mph and higher from about 08:00 pm to 02:00 am tomorrow morning. The max gust indicated at 11:00 pm hits 57 mph - the 06 UTC WRF-GFS wind forecast is not nearly as strong, so it will be interesting to see what transpires.

The grid point precipitation forecast is shown below - the QPFforecast for TUS indicates total amount of 0.21". The hour-by-hour POPs have little meaning since some will end up zero and some 100%. The best way to interpret this graphic is just as time-period POPs and ignore the meaningless hourly detail of the product.

At the bottom is the 06 UTC WRF-GFS forecast of total precipitation amounts through 05:00 pm tomorrow. This forecast has shifted upward relative to yesterday and shows higher amounts across the metro area.

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