Monday, June 26, 2017

Diminishing Thunderstorms For Southeast Arizona

Yesterday thunderstorm activity occurred a bit further west than the WRF-GFS forecast indicated - but no CAPE at low elevations as per the model's forecasts. Graphic above ( and Vaisala) shows CG flash density for 24-hours ending at 06:00 am MST this morning. Storms surrounded the metro area, but the real action was far off to the east over New Mexico and Texas Panhandle, where there were many severe storms.

Dora has become a Category 1 hurricane this morning and is located south of Cabo Corrientes (IR image above from 06:00 am also). The morning track forecast from NHC is shown below. As the 500 mb anticyclone migrates westward across northwestern Mexico, it forces Dora to turn westward, and her chances of significantly affecting southern Arizona are rapidly diminishing.

This morning's skewT plot of TWC upper-air data (above) continues to keep PW over an inch - but there is little CAPE and drying will begin later today - so much diminished storm activity today off to our east. Below is 500 mb forecast from the 06 UTC WRF-GFS run at Atmo - valid at 08:00 pm tomorrow. The 500 mb anticyclone is forecast to be centered west of northern Baja, with hot dry flow into the Southwest from the Pacific. A really nasty pattern that will mostly continue our long run of 100+ F days.

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