Friday, June 23, 2017

Yesterday's Sounding/Brief Look At Today

Shown above is the skewT plot for TWC's 00 UTC sounding data yesterday (see previous post re evolution of BL yesterday). The WRF-GFS forecast sounding was much better than my subjective forecast that the elevated residual BL and SFC BL would merge into single BL. Model forecast was quite good, except for being a bit too moist in surface-based BL. High "only" reached 109 F yesterday. Neither the old elevated or the surface-based BL had any CAPE by 00 UTC.

Nice sunrise this morning - when I returned from morning walk at 06:00 am, temperature here at house was 83 F, nearly same as airport's 84 F - yuck.

This is one of those days when the most interesting weather events are occurring off to our northeast. The 07:00 am surface plot above indicates a strong cool front moving south along the Front Range - already reaching into the northeastern corner of New Mexico. Visible image below from about the same time shows the associated low clouds backed up against the Front Range. (Note also the large areas of smoke from the numerous wildfires burning in the Southwest.)

When this front "back-doors" across southern New Mexico, issues will be: how far west will it make it? and how widespread will be the thunderstorms it triggers? Models this morning suggest fairly widespread storms in southwest New Mexico tomorrow afternoon, that push moist outflow westward into southeastern Arizona, making a chance for storms in our area by Sunday.

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