Clear skies over the Catalinas this morning a bit before 6:00 am MST.
It was a very dry day yesterday across Arizona, with only a few CG flashes over Cochise County and also along the Utah/Arizona border (as per detected CG flashes for 24 hours ending at 0733 UTC this morning - below, from Atmo and Vaisala). The morning forecast from the NWS (second below) indicates a very hot and dry weekend, with Excessive Heat Warnings in place for the metro area.
The 06 UTC GEFS plumes for QPF (above) indicate increasing chances for showers during the week following a dry weekend. Currently it is very dry across the state with morning dewpoints ranging from the 30s to low 50s. The morning sounding from TWC/TUS has only 0.79" of precipitable water.
The IR image below (from the NHC) shows activity over the eastern Pacific. Hurricane Dora remains a Category 4 storm as it moves westward from its location far west of Mexico. The cloud cluster along the coast of southern Mexico is forecast to become a storm, as it moves northwestward toward southern Baja. This storm may trigger a surge of low-level moisture into southern Arizona early next week.
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