Showers Likely Tomorrow

Have been away this morning, but here's a quick update. View above is looking toward Redington Pass at 6:15 am MST this morning.

A significant, 500 mb short wave is digging into Arizona and northwestern Mexico. The forecast above (from the 12 UTC GFS) is valid at 18 UTC tomorrow and indicates strongest vorticity-advection occurs to our southeast,

The 06 UTC GEFS plumes for QPF at the airport (above) show that all members of the ensemble are forecasting some showers for tomorrow - although amounts are fairly light.

The WRF-RR run from 12 UTC this morning forecasts a nice event for the metro area (below forecast valid for period ending at midnight tomorrow night). Fingers crossed.