Gulf Surge Index on-line at Creighton Univ.

Art Douglas, Creighton University, computes a real-time Gulf Surge Index (GSI) daily. The index is computed from the surface data observed hourly at Yuma, Arizona. Values less than 10 index no surge detected, values greater than 10 indicate a surge event, and values of 60 or greater indicate a major surge event. Values for 2005 and 2006 to date are at:

http://whistler.creighton.edu/products/name/Yuma_Gulf_Surge_Index/

For the past week: no surge events July 6 - 9. Surge events with values in range of 10 to 20 have occurred on July 10, 11, and 12..

The slow increase in moisture has lead to a situation over southern Arizona where high values of CAPE have developed at the same time that boundary layer temperatures have increased. The TUS sounding this morning is quite potent, but the winds aloft are weak. There is likely to be a dramatic increase in storms today, despite the NWS current POPs of zero for the local Tucson area.