Friday, July 14, 2006

Weather outlook 14 July 2006

Yesterday was an interesting weather day in the Tucson area. A very intense storm developed mid-afternoon on the east end of the Catalina mountains. Thunder observed at our house, but storm moved to southeast; split into 3 cells and dissipated. Apparently the steering level flow began to strengthen and become more easterly, since strong storms east and southeast of Tucson began building over the metro area before dusk. These storms produced lightning, thunder, light showers, and dusty east winds with gusts around 30 kt. Davis Monthan AFB observed thunder and measureable rain; TUS observed a rainshower, a trace of rain, and carried a CG remark on one observation; here at the house I observed thunder for the second time during the day, along with a dusty sprinkle, outflow winds, and a trace of rainfall.

Today, Friday July 14, appears to have all the ingredients coming together for a newsworthy significant thunderstorm day over southeast and south Arizona. Significant moisture and CAPE remain in place; steering level winds are from east to east-southeast at 15 to 20 kt; upper-level winds are from the north so that anvils should spread off to left and behind any organized storms that develop; middle-level temps have cooled about 3 to 5 degrees; BL temps will be very hot encouraging strong outflows; and finally the wind profile has the potential to support tropical-like squall line/MCS moving toward the west. I anticipate a much more interesting day today and will keep my digital camera handy!

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