The first tropical storm of the Atlantic season - Arlene - is off the east coast of Mexico. The storm has been found by recon aircraft to be a bit stronger than previously thought, and also located a bit further east. The Mexican Weather Service has issued Hurricane warnings ahead of Arlene. The NHC forecasts Arlene to move to the west-southwest and weaken, after coming ashore tomorrow morning.
The tropical wave associated with Arlene is forecast to remain relatively strong as it moves west across Mexico. The NAM 700 mb forecast above (valid at 5 pm Saturday afternoon July 2nd, indicates a strong, inverted trough moving across the GoC - and perhaps a Pacific redevelopment of a tropical system south of the GoC. The forecast continues to indicate, as per an earlier post, an excellent setup for a deep surge of mT air into Arizona on Saturday. This, of course, is still 3 days away, and so we will have to watch the situation as Arlene moves into central Mexico.
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