Possible Impacts From Hurricane Beatriz Later This Week

Hurricane Beatriz is approaching Cabo Corrientes (see satellite image at top) this morning. The NHC forecast indicates that it will move north of 20 N as a Cat 1 hurricane before taking a turn westward with rapid weakening. Forecast models continue to indicate strengthening of the Pacific lobe of the subtropical high in middle levels, which would block Beatriz from moving further to the north. However, the forecast track (see second graphic above) appears to be one that would likely trigger a shallow surge of low-level, mT air northward up the GoC.

Observations this morning indicate that surface dewpoints are high along the GoC, e.g., the Mazatlan sounding this morning (see below) is quite moist with 55 mm of PW, Hermosilla reports surface Td of 72F, Yuma has Td of 48F, while Tucson has Td of 24F. Unfortunately, there have been no soundings taken at Guaymas since the 8th of June. The track forecast for Beatriz would bring strong winds and significant pressure rises to the region just south of the mouth of the GoC late tonight through Wednesday night. Typically, this would mean that a surge of low-level moisture should be expected by Thursday morning at Yuma. The forecast track is somewhat unusual, so we'll have to just watch to see how things evolve.