There is a lot of lingering cloud cover and light shower activity this morning - visible image above is from 08:30 am MST. The early run of Atmo's WRF-GFS did not catch the clouds, and thus has insolation forecast too intense for this morning. Nice morning rainbow off to the west at sunrise.
The morning sounding from Tucson reflects the deep, local cloud cover, and thus is not very representative of the larger environment for today. However, it does indicate the very deep boundary layer persisting, with cloud bases very high. Winds through the cloud layer are southerly, with steering flow slightly stronger than anvil-level winds. But still a fairly blah situation to start the new month. No CAPE in the morning sounding, but WRF-GFS forecasts CAPE by midafternoon for low elevations across the metro Tucson area.
The early WRF-GFS forecast of total rainfall through midnight tonight. The model keys in on eastern Pima County, and even forecasts some nice rainfall in central Tucson. BUT, remember that there were problems early in the run, so we'll have to watch to see just how the small-scale details evolve.
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