Early March Storm - With Bit Of Everything

First - David C. asked (a couple of posts ago): Your .37" of precip to 2/29 is drier than even we normally are over here in the (Ay) Chihuahuan Desert region. But once you put in the Nov or to mid-Dec, you aren't too low for precip, are you? 

The best way to look at this is for the first five months of the water year (the water year begins October 1st - since after that date the mountains are likely to begin accumulating winter snowpack). Normal for TUS from October 1st to end of February is 4.19". Here at the house we are 0.31" above that normal. However, we had more rain here than did the airport. The airport (TUS) has had 3.28" during same period and is thus almost an inch below normal

A strong, synoptic cyclone is intensifying over southern Illinois and will move to southern Michigan by 00 UTC this evening (above is NWS forecast surface chart for 6 pm CST from the HPC). The storm will impact Chicago, Milwaukee, and Detroit metropolitan areas significantly. If precipitation turns to snow at Chicago, the evening rush could be impacted. Regardless, the major airports in the lower Great Lakes will probably experience weather-related delays, and problems at O'Hare often ripple across the entire country.

To the south, the SPC expects a significant outbreak of severe thunderstorms (see current outlook below), centered on the Ohio Valley - this would be the second outbreak within a week.