Strong 500 mb short wave digging down the west coast (12Z NAM 500 mb analysis above) will close off and bring a vorticity maximum to just west of Las Vegas by Wednesday morning (NAM 24-hour 500 mb forecast below). Heights fall well over 200 m at 500 mb near the center of the low by 12Z on the 7th of March, indicative of the cold temperatures within the circulation (colder than -30C).
A strong, windy and dusty cold front will cross southern Arizona during the night tonight (see 24-hour NAM 850 mb forecast below), ending the recent warm period (highs in 80s last two days with diurnal temperature range at house of more than 50F).
By Thursday morning another vorticity maximum has intensified on west side of closed low and is positioned just northeast of Tucson (see NAM 48-hour 500 mb forecast below). The western tail of this trough lingers over the Southwest for several days, indicating cool temperatures and more lows below freezing here at house (lows here for first 5 mornings in March ranged from 22F to 32F). Precipitation forecast to remain far to the north and east.
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