The GFS 72-hour 500 mb forecast valid at 00 UTC 16 March 2012 is shown above from an earlier post. Below is the GFS 500 mb analysis for 00 UTC last evening. Assuming the analysis is realistic, the forecast is playing out quite well. The short wave off the Oregon coast is a bit weaker than forecast; however, the important wave that was forecast into the west Pacific from Asia has indeed materialized. The event appears to be developing a bit faster than was indicated by the 7-day forecast, which led the TUS NWS to forecast 40% POPs for next Monday. Current forecast now maximizes the POPs at 90% for Sunday.
A water vapor image for the Pacific is shown below for 1422 UTC this morning. The ridge is building now ahead of the west Pacific short wave and the important (for the Southwest) shortwave is now amplifying east of the building ridge. Quite some performance so far by the global forecast models.
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