NAM Forecast Similar To GFS

The new NAM forecasts this morning (Wednesday, 14 March 2012) are similar to the longer range GFS forecasts. At 84-hours the NAM has a strong, 500 mb short wave digging down the California coast.

Here are two blended, total precipitable water graphics for the Pacific at 10 UTC this morning (posted to the Map list by Sheldon Kusselson, NOAA NESDIS). The long moisture plume (top) across the central Pacific will play a role in this weekend's forecast Southwest weather event. The broad, southern plume into north-central California is currently associate with a large area of light-to-moderate rain and snow. Below is a graphic that shows the percent of normal values of TPW depicted in top figure. TPW south of Alaska/Aluetians reaches over 240%.