There was a very large MCS with cold cloud-tops over northern Mexico last evening (04 UTC image on 30 June above from NCAR RAL). This system sent outflows into southeastern Arizona during the night and kicked the PW back up a bit, although the main push of this system was to the west. Lots of debris cloud this morning (1345 UTC visible image from CoD weather below) northern Mexico, southern 2/3rds of New Mexico, and southeastern Arizona.
This morning's TWC sounding (above from SPC) indicates only a sliver of afternoon CAPE at low elevations. Tricky situation with very dry low-level air to the northwest of Tucson and moist air to southwest. Advective flow below 500 mb appears to be from northwest in the NAM forecasts (WRF-GFS not available), which would keep storms south and east of metro Tucson again today. The vertical wind profile is totally chopped up, and with light wind speeds (both above and hodograph below).
The middle to upper-level anticyclone is nearly vertical and nearly overhead - not a good situation. I have to say that this week's patterns remind me very much of last summer. Also, not good.
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