There were several strong thunderstorms yesterday along the border lands from around Ft. Huachua to northwest of Nogales. The Sasabe RAWS station had 0.08" of rain but with a thunderstorm gust of 59 mph (51 kt); Ft. Huachuca reported thunder with 48 mph and a trace of rain. The ALERT gauge near Arivaca (Las Guijas Mountain) was the only station in the network to measure rain, but the amount was 0.67". In the Tucson metro are during the afternoon and evening there was a mixture of thunderstorm anvil cloud cover with some middle clouds, especially at sunset. The IR satellite images (above 02 UTC and below 05 UTC) show thunderstorms anvils along the borderlands, with a small MCS at 05 UTC, mostly south of the border (Nogales did report thunder and 0.04" during the afternoon). My feel is that the Friday (day 2) WRF-GFS forecast for southeastern Arizona was better than yesterday morning's day 1 forecast.
Weak outflows moved into southeastern Arizona during the night, increasing PW values to around 30 mm by sunrise. The GPS - RAOB comparison for U of A (below) shows the gradual increase during the past 5 days - from less than 5 mm on the 20th to 30 mm this morning. A gradual increase in PW, rather than an impulsive surge. More later on the model forecasts this morning.
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