The NWS Office on campus did not take a morning sounding today since there was a thunderstorm very near the release site. They did take a special sounding at 18 UTC, which is shown above. The sounding indicates moderate CAPE available, if the cool layer near the surface can be overcome. This requires either a good recovery in surface heating, or a strong outflow later this afternoon. There is a vertical wind profile present which favors organized outflows - steering flow from east-southeast at 15 to 20 kt with northwesterly winds of 25 to 30 kt at anvil level. The surface plot below (from MesoWest at 1 pm MST) shows small scale pools of cool air and also areas where temperatures have reached a 100 F or slightly more. So, as per yesterday, we'll have to wait to see exactly how things evolve. A morning sounding might have indicated what exactly had led to the sunrise storms along the I-10.
I suspect that storms may be delayed until evening today because of the chopped up situation. The 500 mb data do indicate that cooler air continues to advect around the anticyclone, which is a positive aspect of the larger-scale setting.
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