First, a review of yesterday afternoon. There were several thunderstorms over far southeastern Cochise County yesterday evening. Plot of detected CG flashes above (from Vaisala and Atmo) is for 24-hours ending at 6:00 am MST this morning. There was a substantial increase in thunderstorm activity over northern Mexico during past 12-18 hours. The 09 UTC IR image below shows a large MCS over northeastern Sonora, with a new MCS developing to its southwest. the second MCS is now active over southern Sonora.
Outflows from the decayed, nearer MCS may be helping keep low level dewpoints south and east of Tucson in the 60s F this morning; however, high elevation RAWS stations indicate that dry air aloft continues, except perhaps right along the southeastern Borderlands. The WRF models forecast storm activity to continue today mostly in northern Mexico, with perhaps some light, middle-level sprinkles over southeastern Arizona.
Plot above shows the 12 UTC skewT plot (from SPC) for the NWS TWC upper-air data.. Low-levels continue very dry, with no CAPE. There is a layer of seriously bad data aloft from about 650 to 550 mb, where the lapse rate is strongly super-adiabatic. Middle and upper-level moisture continues as debris cloudiness and moisture advects northward around the west side of the anticyclone, which is now over far eastern New Mexico.
The sounding data should not have been transmitted given that it was obviously bad. It has now gone into several upper-air data bases to perhaps confound future users of the observations. The sounding below from NWS/SRP in Phoenix, presents a better picture of how pathetic conditions in low-levels continue today.
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