July Very Dry Locally So far

Here in north Tucson July has played out very dry so far. Rain on the 5th only and amount then a paltry 0.11. Art Douglas has reported much more rain over in Ash Canyon and Mike Leuthold reported a heavy thunderstorm and marble-sized hail at Paradise in the Chirichuas near Portal yesterday afternoon. The plot of detected CGs through midnight last night (above from Atmo and Vaisala) shows that dry and stable conditions won here in eastern Pima County, with storms off from east to northeast of here. Some nice views of the storms northeast of the Catalinas from here last eveing.

The TWC morning sounding (below for 12 UTC from SPC) remains a very mixed bag. Moisture again right around 1.50 inches PW, but with marginal CAPE due to warm middle-level temperatures. The higher moisture is pushing slowly back westward, so the dry/moist clash will be off to west - northwest today. The visible satellite image from 6:45 am MST (second below) shows a cloud mass along the east shore of the GoC extending across Tucson area and into northern New Mexico. So best heating will likely be to our east. The deep layer of southerly winds (from 850 mb to the tropopause) is not a good one for many parts of the metro area (particularly here at house), since anvils spread out ahead of thunderstorms and reduce heating. We will need development just to the south, if we are to get anything in this part of Tucson this afternoon. The 06 UTC run of the WRF models is not available, and the 00 UTC run of the WRF-NAM kept storms again to the east, where the model forecast more sunshine.

Finally, NHC has been issuing advisories on TS Dolores, which is off the southern coast of Mexico this morning (current NHC forecast above and 1315 UTC visible image of the storm below). The NHC forecasts Dolores to eventually become a major hurricane and to turn westward along 20 N. The track forecast is a marginal one for triggering a major GoC moisture surge, but the actual track and extent of Dolores will be the important issues in a few days.