Morning thunderstorms have mostly weakened now, except south of the border. Large area of residual showers and heavy cloud cover is drifting slowly westward across Cochise County, and a small area of showers in eastern Pima County is moving west along I-10. There are large areas of cloudiness this morning over New Mexico, southeastern Arizona, and northern Sonora. It is likely that there are MCVs/weak inverted troughs associated with the debris systems east and south of Tucson area. There is also a larger, but weak trough south of the Four Corners region - net result will be a complex and somewhat chaotic large-scale setting today.
The morning skewT plot of the 12 UTC TWC upper-air data (above from SPC) shows another onion shaped sounding - but importantly, one that requires minimal heating to produce a deep boundary layer that will have moderate CAPE. The vertical wind profile remains very poor with chopped-up, light winds below 300 mb. Storms at low elevations will evolve depending upon the amount of local heating - looks like best sunshine will develop just to west of heavy clouds moving west from Cochise County - and the evolution of outflows. It will be another day for careful monitoring of the hour-to-hour evolution of storm activity, especially since possibility of downbursts and heavy rains will be significant with strong thunderstorm cores.
Finally, the NHC has upgraded TS Guillermo to a Cat. 1 hurricane this morning (IR image of storm below is from 1330 UTC). Guillermo is west of 130 W and moving off toward the Big Island of Hawaii - so not of much interest to us in the Southwest.
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