Wednesday, September 12, 2018

Tropics - Florence To Mangkhut And Between

Category 4 Hurricane Florence continues to head for the Carolina's this morning (above). Models now seem consistent in forecasting Florence to be blocked from turning north and to linger in the Southeast - this could result in extremely serious heavy rains and flooding.

Below is IR image showing TS Olivia heading west through the Hawaiian Islands - probably another heavy rain threat.

Super Typhoon Mangkhut above (currently with wind gusts approaching 200 MPH) is over West Pacific. This storm is forecast to clip the north end of the Philippines before heading toward Hong Kong.

Closer afield is a weak, middle-level cyclone (below) that is centered west of Cabo Corrientes, Mexico. This system is forecast to remain nearly stationary next several days. Second below is GFS forecast for Eastern Pacific at 850 mb level with PW valid at 00 UTC on Friday. The interaction between this feature at southern end of GoC and the nearly stationary West Coast trough, allows higher PW air from GoC to inch back into Arizona, with perhaps another transition pattern setting up over the weekend.

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