Friday, March 22, 2024

Showers Beginning Sunday



View to the east at 6:20 am MST this morning.


Forecast for 500 mb valid at 06 UTC on 25 March from the 06 UTC GFS run last night. Strong short-wave is across Arizona to west of San Diego.
QPF plumes for the airport from the 06 UTC GEFS runs, with several periods of rain indicated from early Sunday through through Tuesday. There a large range in the amounts of almost an inch.
Plumes for temperature (above) indicate strong cooling starting Saturday night, but with recovery to warm temperatures by end of the week. Plumes for wind (below) indicate several periods of strong winds during the week, beginning tomorrow afternoon.


The 00 UTC WRF-GFS run (above) indicates widespread precipitation across much of the state through 5:00 pm on Tuesday the 26th. Current morning forecast from the NWS for the airport (below) calls for high POPs on Sunday night. Winds gusting in the 30 to 40 mph range are, to me, a bit more than "breezy"!

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