An article in yesterday's Tucson Daily Star reported that the NWS, and its Climate Prediction Center, had indicated that the summer has a 40% chance of being drier than normal. the summer outlook is shown above. The actual thunderstorm season here runs July through September, and that outlook (below) is even drier than the Summer outlook.
However, as Mike Crimmins noted in the article - forecasting for the "Monsoon" is very difficult. This is because the character of an entire summer season here can be basically determined by just a few days with very heavy rains, making it wetter than normal.
So, I'll be watching how the patterns evolve day-to-day and week-to-week and hoping that the very dry outlooks are not that accurate.
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