Today - the early WRF-GFS forecasts a total shutdown across most of southern Arizona this afternoon and evening. The WRF-GFS forecast of PW valid at 5 am MST is shown above - note the dry air over western Pima County and the northern GoC. The time-series of GPS PW at Sells (below) indicates that the blob of dryness is likely out there.
The PW forecast for 5 pm MST this afternoon (above) takes PW below an inch over portions of Pima County. Thus, the forecast indicates a serious dry-down for at least 24-48 hours. No storms and abundant sunshine (WRF-GFS forecast of solar irradiance W/m2 at 2 pm below) indicates that we'll see hotter temperatures and the development of a much deeper boundary layer the next several days.
Next seven days - The NWS gird-point forecast for TUS indicates 10% POPs during all of the next 14 12-hour forecast periods. High temps at the airport forecast to range from 97 to 101F, while lows range 75-77F. Thus, a week of cookie-cutter days indicated by the NWS forecast. Obviously not much in the model forecasts to grab onto. But, the likelihood that the next seven days will be nearly identical are not very great this time of year. So, I'd say that the chances that the next seven days will be so similar are about 10%.
July - July - has been very wet here in the local Tucson area. The airport had 4.13" of rain - but around 2" of that fell in one storm. Here at the house we had 2.91", with 1.57" of that falling in about an hour on one day; and 2.63" of the total fell on just 4 days. Ron Holle and Jim Toth both reported over 3 inches of rain in less than two hours - thus besting the total here at house in a single downpour.
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