Yesterday there were buildups over the mountains at times and very isolated thundershowers to the east and south of Tucson. Across the ALERT network 8 stations - mostly far east and in the Catalinas - measured very light rain amounts. The CIRA blended PW (above - with golds > 1.50" and greens > 1.00") shows that higher PW amounts persist across southwestern Arizona and the California deserts. With cooler air advecting over Arizona at middle levels, there may a slight increase in thundershower activity, especially to the north and northeast of Tucson (below is early WRF-GFS composite radar forecast for 5 pm this afternoon). While the model forecasts rebuild the 500 mb anticyclone over our region, height gradients and wind fields are forecast to be very slight. So, we will have to watch to see whether enough moisture influx develops to support a round of storms during the coming week.
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