Several MCSs in Mexico produced outflows that have pushed the local PW up quite a bit wrt yesterday. The first, and stronges, of these was from the south at about 7:30 pm MST last evening, followed by a couple of others after midnight - see wind gusts at Atmo (above). The front coming south on the Plains did so much faster than expected, and it had pushed across southern New Mexico by sunrise - it is a player in today's weather, especially if easterly winds kick up in the low levels. The 7 am MST visible image (below) shows that the entire band of monsoon cloudiness has shifted westward over Mexico and Arizona. So, many changes from yesterday.
There is heavy morning cloud around, as well as light sprinkles (6 am MST TUS radar composite above). It is not clear at this time how much the cloudiness may affect afternoon temperatures and CAPE. The early WRF-GFS seemed to capture the sunrise activity well. The morning Tucson sounding, while more moist, does not have much CAPE for surface-based convection. The model forecasts a tiny bit of afternoon storminess in eastern Pima County - 4 pm MST composite radar forecast below. The model had forecast a much more active day for today in yesterday's forecasts. So, today is one for watching, since there seems no clear forecast this morning.
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