It appears that warming and drying low-level easterly winds will invade southeastern Arizona this afternoon. Timing is fairly critical, since PWs are currently around an 1.50". Yesterday it appeared that the best forecast was a mix of the early and 12 UTC WRF-GFS. There were more storms around, but they stayed mostly on the higher elevations. Only 9 stations in the ALERT network had rainfall; however, White Tail on Mt. Lemmon reported 1.14" - far and away the highest amount. Very scenic skies both at sunset and sunrise.
The early WRF-GFS today indicates some early shower development over eastern Pima County (above is composite radar forecast valid at 2 pm MST this afternoon). Then the forecast indicates easterly winds later in the afternoon. The forecast of PW for 8 pm is shown below. The battle will intensify tomorrow and Wednesday, as a significant push of very moist, low-level air and high CAPE is forecast into southwestern Arizona.
Finally, it appears that Isaac is taking aim at New Orleans (IR image below is from 1345 UTC this morning), just as was Katrina eight years ago!
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