Isolated thunderstorms developed over the metro area at several different times during the day yesterday. the airport reported three different thunderstorms, but had only 0.02" of rain. Here at the house there were at least two storms ,and one after dark at about 9:20 pm MST produced 0.02". The storm above developed out on the west side of the metro area at sunset. Heaviest storms and rains were off to west and southwest, as predicted by the models. Across the ALERT network rain fell at a bit more than 30% of the sites during the past 24-hours. Only three sites had more than half an inch, again on the west side of the network.
This morning's Tucson sounding is shown below (from Univ. of WY). There is a very deep residual boundary layer aloft over a a surface layer that has been cooled some by yesterday's storms. Winds aloft are southeasterly to easterly at 20 to 30 kts. The 500 mb anticyclone has shifted to a position along the Arizona/New Mexico border northeast of Tucson. Models forecast it to shift northward over Utah by tomorrow. The anticyclone is stacked nearly vertically to 200 mb, which is not good for storms; however, a more favorable pattern is forecast for tomorrow.
The main weather word is hot, as shown by the early WRF-GFS forecast of surface observations across the metro area (above) valid at 5 pm MST this afternoon. The surface winds are forecast to be from the northwest, which will keep PW values around 35 mm and also be upslope and convergent with any easterly winds from New Mexico. The WRF-GFS forecast of the TUS sounding valid at 5 pm (below) indicates a very deep boundary layer with some CAPE at low elevations. Heaviest storms will be off to the southwest again today, but late day storms are again possible for the metro area. Stay hydrated!
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