Dry and warm air in the middle and upper-troposphere dominated yesterday, and there were only some very isolated thundershowers to the east and southeast of Tucson (above is regional radar at 5 pm MST from NCAR RAL). The early WRF-GFS forecast the down trend for yesterday and actually things ended up more suppressed than the early run had forecast. There is still low-level moisture across southern Arizona with highest PW values stretching from Phoenix to Yuma - values in Pima County are around 1.25". The early WRF-GFS forecast for today indicates more isolated showers within the current deep westerly flow. Models predict that the 500 mb anticyclone will redevelop quickly to the north, so the question of interest will be whether it sets up in a way that allows cooler, middle-level flow from the east to south to return to southeastern Arizona.
Meanwhile, TS Isaac will be approaching Haiti and western Cuba today and tomorrow (latest NHC forecast is shown below). Storm is expected to intensify to hurricane strength once it is over the Gulf of Mexico. the current NHC forecast indicates landfall near Mobile, Alabama, next Tuesday night.
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