Another very suppressed day in the Tucson area yesterday. Not much to write about today. Above is the 12 UTC 500 mb analysis from NCAR for today (Thursday, August 2nd). Western Arizona is caught in the trough separating anticyclones centered over the California coast and northwestern Texas. The temperatures at 500 mb are very warm from western Arizona eastward across Texas - with Ft. Worth and Midland coming in at -3C. Very ugly. The NAM 500 mb forecast (below), valid at 12 UTC next Sunday, indicates a trough digging souheastward across the Great Lakes, effectively pushing the Texas anticyclone back some to the west.
The 500 mb pattern is "classic" monsoon flow, but the question of import is how will low-level moisture make a return? Mesoscale outflows play a big part in our moisture influxes and we'll watch to the south in hopes of MCS activity returning to Sonora and the Gulf of California.
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