Tuesday, December 04, 2012

Dreary Morning In Southern Arizona

It's a chilly and dreary morning over much of southern Arizona, as thin cirrus overcast prevails - above is visible satellite image from 10 am MST. Appears to be some middle-level buildups off to the northwest, in addition to the cirrus. Low this morning at house was 37F - each morning so far in December has been in the mid-to-upper 30s.

The ECMWF (above) and GFS (below) forecasts for 500 mb from 00 UTC last evening have come
into better agreement at 144-hours - 5 pm MST next Sunday. The ECMWF is now a bit stronger, forecasting a 5460 m closed low over northwestern Arizona. This would certainly bring a serious taste of winter to much of the state.

The GFS forecast of 1000-500 mb thickness at 12 UTC on Monday morning (below) indicates thickness values at Tucson of near 5340 m, which would bring snow levels in precipitation over southeast Arizona to very low elevations.

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