Tuesday, December 18, 2012

Fast Hitting Weather Event Tonight

Have taken a quick look at Atmo's early run of the GFS-WRF (it is run about midnight with initialization from last evening's NWS GFS). Above is the forecast of composite radar echoes valid at 2 am tomorrow morning (Wednesday the 19th). This band of light showers is pretty much the precipitation part of the event and it passes quickly. The forecast TUS sounding (below) indicates a saturated layer from about 850 to 600 mb and dry above - similar to the situation discussed in an earlier post for the last event.

The total precipitation forecast by the WRF-GFS through noon on Wednesday is shown below. The early forecast indicates a very light rainfall event at low elevations, with better amounts of precipitation in the Catalinas and Rincons. Will be interesting to see what the morning forecasts do wrt this storm.

No comments:

Post a Comment