Wednesday, March 22, 2017

Another Moisture Starved Weather System

As was the case with the last few systems, the forecast models have trended drier as this event neared in time. The plumes from the SREF system above are from the SPC and are for the 09 UTC run valid for TUS. The mean (black) is only 0.04" (vertical scale shown in increments of 0.025" - thus the second highest airport amount shown by green line is just 0.10").

For unknown reasons the MIMIC PW and the GEFS plumes have not been available since 12 UTC Monday morning this week.

The forecast below shows total precipitation forecast by the WRF-GFS at Atmo for period from 06 UTC last night through 11:00 pm MST tomorrow night. Almost a total miss for southern Arizona in the current model forecast. The forecast soundings still indicate a chance for shallow showers with the cold front, centered around 02:00 am early tomorrow, indicating a bit of hope remaining.

Bottom image shows a bit of early morning color on our placita.

1 comment:

  1. It appears that GEFS data has resumed with the 12 UTC run today.

    While MIMIC-TPW is missing, the newer MIMIC-TPW2 is working: