Thursday, March 16, 2017

Weather Returns Middle Of Next Week?

Has been very mundane weather, dominated by hot and dry, since February 19th with only rain being 0.02" here on the 28th. The current forecast from NWS this morning indicates high temperatures in middle 90s F for Saturday and Sunday, but by Wednesday next week the forecast is for chances of showers and thunderstorms, with 30% PoPs for at least 0.01" of rain at the airport. Have taken a far-ahead look at the 00 UTC forecast run of the WRF-GFS from Atmo last evening.

The 500 mb forecast above is valid at 11:00 am MST next Wednesday, March 22nd.  A cold, negatively-tilted short-wave trough is forecast to be sweeping across Arizona at that time. The forecast sounding for Tucson at 10:00 am that morning (below) is quite impressive wrt to the current very hot and dry soundings. There is CAPE and 20 mm of PW in the forecast skewT as another weakening AR sweeps by southern Arizona. The model's forecast of composite radar echoes valid at 11:00 am that morning (bottom) is also very impressive.

Of course, this is VERY far ahead and it will be interesting to see if the models prove more accurate than they were for the "event" of February 28th.

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