Monday, May 04, 2015

11:00 AM Morning Update - May 4rth

I had a morning appointment over on the east side, so I missed the thunder here and also a morning rainbow to the west reported by neighbors, the Ferners. The two radar images above and below are the first tilt from the TUS radar at 7:00 and 8:00 am (respectively above and below). The storm developed west of downtown Tucson and tracked north-northeastward, staying off to the west of the house. The two-hour CG flash density from Weather.Graphics (second below) is for period ending at 10:15 am MST. The storm was quite active wrt to lightning. Apparently small hail was reported from the Oracle area, and some places around the north part of the Catalinas have reported around a half inch of rain.

The latest forecast (12 UTC run) from the WRF-NAM at Atmo continues to keep afternoon storms mostly to the north of Pima County. The model continues to forecast that drier air to our south will move across Pima County stabilizing things. The model forecast of PW (above) is valid at 3:00 pm this afternoon and the forecast sounding for TWC valid at same time (below) indicates almost no CAPE by that time. Will watch to see how things pan out.

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