Tuesday, May 26, 2015

Brief Eastern Pacific Update

The NHC outlook for next five days now indicates a high probability of at least a tropical depression developing. The text concerning this "red" area states:
500 AM PDT TUE MAY 26 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located several hundred miles
south of the coast of Mexico are associated with a trough of low
pressure.  Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual
development of this system during the next several days, and a
tropical depression is likely to form late this week while
the system moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent
However, the latest ECMWF operational forecast has evolved strangely and forecasts a small TS into Mexico well south of Cabo Corrientes, with a broad and weak low off to the west of the TS. Forecast below (from Jack Diebolt) is for 210-hours and is valid on June 3rd. As for the GFS, the spread of the ensemble solutions is very great - so there may or may not be a tropical disturbance near Baja in 6-10 days. 

1 comment:

  1. Anonymous11:09 AM

    Wow...the analogers are at polar opposites. As Director of Rapid Global Cooling I would say...beware the blob!