The NHC outlook for next five days now indicates a high probability of at least a tropical depression developing. The text concerning this "red" area states:
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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 500 AM PDT TUE MAY 26 2015 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: 1. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located several hundred miles south of the coast of Mexico are associated with a trough of low pressure. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system during the next several days, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this week while the system moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent
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However, the latest ECMWF operational forecast has evolved strangely and forecasts a small TS into Mexico well south of Cabo Corrientes, with a broad and weak low off to the west of the TS. Forecast below (from Jack Diebolt) is for 210-hours and is valid on June 3rd. As for the GFS, the spread of the ensemble solutions is very great - so there may or may not be a tropical disturbance near Baja in 6-10 days.
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