Friday, May 22, 2015

Art's Precipitation Outlook - Summer 2015

Art Douglas shared his analog outlook for the next few months, and the precipitation portions are shown below for July and August, with June and September at the bottom. Art does his outlook using a process through which he chooses five analog years. The strong El Nino that is underway, and its temporal evolution, will play a significant role in determining how the next few months will go. Art's analog years are: 1957, 1972, 1982, 1990, and 1991. The El Nino influence can be fickle here in southern Arizona - 1990 was a stormy and wet summer but 1991 was very dry.  The persistent trough along the west coast has been related to the El Nino, and it has been associated with May snows in the Rockies and Sierras, as well as unusual wetness in far southern California.


The analog years end up indicating wet conditions mostly to our east and north for July and August (above). June (first below) years indicate wet over Arizona and southern California - this has been the pattern that has prevailed the last several weeks of May also. September analog years indicate a return to near normal conditions for Arizona. Also of interest will be the character of the eastern Pacific tropical storm season, with perhaps another very active year adding another wild card into the mix.



1 comment:

  1. Very good info. The only month map that surprises me is June...a shift to climatology (bone dry) for NM and Trans-Pecos TX? If that holds, this would become a wet summer in much of the desert SW..

    54F low at my place today! (if only this could last into June.....probably not a chance)

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