Back From Trip

We have been away for a week on an expected trip to California and have just gotten back to Tucson a couple of hours ago. Here is a quick post regarding the persistent 500 mb pattern that is probably related to the ongoing El Nino.

The troughiness over the Southwest U.S. is forecast by the GFS ensembles to persist through the coming week. I show here the, 12 UTC this morning cycle, GFS ensemble 500 mb mean charts for above - 12h valid about an hour ago; below - 68h valid at 00 UTC 23 May; and bottom - 168h valid at 12 UTC 26 May. 

Unfortunately, the troughs affecting the Southwest have been very moisture starved, at least for southern Arizona. I did find 0.07" of rain in the gauge a bit ago and that was from the early morning event of last Saturday, May 16th.