Sunday, May 24, 2015

Bit More Re The Tropics

Eastern pacific continues active today. Disturbance #2 highlighted by NHC has been spinning away fairly vigorously, as per satellite loops. I have added an arrow to this morning's NHC outlook (above) that points to a new disturbance, not yet highlighted by NHC, which also is showing rotation in satellite loops. Meanwhile, the global models are forecasting a significant event to impact Baja and the GoC beyond 7 days out.

Jack Diebolt sent along these GFS graphics from the 06 UTC run last night - they are valid 240-hours out, but are so extreme that I thought I'd show them. The model currently forecasts a hurricane to be west-southwest of Baja (above) in ten days, with strong winds blowing up the GoC. Precipitable water (just below) is very impressive and is forecast to intrude into Arizona by valid time. The bottom graphic shows the model's PW anomalies (as standard deviations from normal). The PW forecast for central GoC is ~ 5 standard deviations above normal for this time of year. Quite some forecast - but of course it is far out on the predictability horizon.

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